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Investing

Political Campaigns Spawn Economic Fallout

May 22, 2016 By Twila Van Leer

Political uncertainty causing economic angst.
Political uncertainty causing stagnant economy.
The rancorous 2016 election campaigns are having a negative effect on the country’s economy, the experts are concluding.

Manufacturing

Manufacturing has taken a dip, with the smallest improvement in sales since 2009 and the companies are blaming the political uncertainties for the difficulties. The Markit Economics manufacturing index fell to 50.8 in April, the lowest it has been since September 2009.

American Households

American households also seem to be retrenching as consumer confidence slides to the lowest level since last September. The unusual and more confrontational nature of the debates, rampant dissatisfaction with the major parties and the uncertainty of where the country would head under pending leadership all are factors.

Business Spending And Investing

Some businesses are delaying spending and investment decisions until there is more clarity about what might be on the minds of the various candidates vis a vis business regulation. Policies that might make a difference in bottom lines are still pending.

Presidential Nominees Positions

Donald trump, likely Republican presidential nominee, has thrown out such possibilities as putting big tariffs on Chinese imports, while Democratic front runner Hillary Clinton has waffled on some of the positions she has championed in the past that were pro-business.

Other Indicators

This sort of flux in political positions has caused a lull of sorts in business activity, economic experts say. Among other indicators, orders for business equipment were down by almost 3 percent in February. The Federal Reserve also has noted signs of increasing unease about the political situation as it makes surveys for the Beige Book. Eight mentions of the campaign were made in the three reports that have been published by the central bank so far this year. In 2012, the last general election year, there were two such mentions. In 2008, there were none.

consumer Angst

The University of Michigan’s monthly confidence survey also indicates more consumer angst about the direction of the country’s politics. The economy may be stagnant as it waits the outcome of the November balloting.

Filed Under: Business, Investing, Security, Spending Habits Tagged With: business, economy, Investing

Plan Ahead For Retirement

May 21, 2016 By Twila Van Leer

What you should already be doing in planning for your retirement.
What you should already be doing in planning for retirement.
The decisions you make early in life can make a huge difference in what your retirement cushion will look like. Waiting until you are about to head out the door of your employment is way too late to start thinking about it.

Stay Married

It’s common to hear from both parties to a divorce that he /she “lost everything” in the process. That isn’t mathematically possible, but it’s safe to say that it’s rare that either partner benefits financially when there is a split. If you fall into the divorce pit (and some 50 percent of American couples do) remember to calculate the future needs of retirement as you divvy up the goods. Applying some sound common sense in the relocation process will help. Wiping out the entire proceeds from a divorce while setting up independently may leave little for the retirement years. A smaller living space, fewer immediate “wants,” a more economical car may be good alternatives.

Spend Less Than You Make

This bit of wisdom has been bandied about forever, but not enough Americans pay attention. Debt is simply impatience expressed through money. If you save the amount of a monthly payment for as many months as the purchase takes, you can pay cash and avoid interest.

Live Frugally

Used vehicles serve well for every day getting where you’re going. Mow your own lawn, make your own repairs when possible, make eating out a rare option. Just keep thinking about how good life will be when you are retired if you don’t spend it all when you aren’t.

Invest

Take what is left when you have lived frugally and put it into a savings plan that will offer some tax advantages. An investment counselor is a good idea if you aren’t really savvy about the market. Making changes in your savings program just for the sake of change may be counter-productive. It can be tricky. Before you sign up for something new, think first if it will fit into the long-standing plans you have been pursuing.

Filed Under: Budgets, Investing, Saving Money, Spending Habits Tagged With: Investing, money management, Retirement

Investment Trends For Personal Finance In 2016

March 7, 2016 By Twila Van Leer

Investment Trends For 2016
Investment Trends For 2016

What’s happening in the world matters to your personal finances. The larger socioeconomic trends filter down to your own pocketbook whether or not you want them to. Following are current trends that may affect your finances over the next five years, according to the experts:

Interest income will continue to be dismal.

Cash and savings accounts are being affected by global debt, aging populations and low energy prices. Countries have lowered interest rates they pay on short-term notes, in some cases paying negative interest rates. That means the lenders have to pay a fee to own debt securities. The results trickle down to the individual. To offset, the experts advise that you modestly increase your allocation to global stocks and real estate.

Too much information can swamp you.

Technology makes an excess of data available through blogs, social media and emails. With so many options and relatively easy access to competitive products, analysis paralysis can cloud decisions. Turn off the “cookies” feature in your browser and avoid an overabundance of ads.

The costs of investing will continue to drop.

In the investing world, where so many factors are beyond the control of individuals, it is smart to lower expenses in hopes of increasing returns. But cost isn’t the only factor. Consistent savings, investment diversification and comfort with volatility are also to be considered. The experts say that instead of focusing solely on low fees, you should create an investment strategy that aligns with your goals.

Life insurance costs are going up.

Insurance companies earning less on their portfolios may opt for premium increases for whole and term life policies. The companies make their money on premium income and investment performance and they share the pain with customers when things are not going well for them. To counter, you might consider buying term insurance for the longest time span that makes sense to you. Term life, unlike whole life and other so-called permanent policies, has no cash component and usually expires after a set number of years, so it usually is cheaper. If you want permanent life insurance, look at a variably policy from a lower-cost but reliable provider. You then take a moderate risk over a longer time and grow the policy’s investment.

Filed Under: Insurance, Investing, Personal Finance, Saving Money Tagged With: Investing, money management, Personal Finance

Sharks Experts Share Advice

February 24, 2016 By Twila Van Leer

Shark Tank Experts
Kevin O’Leary, Barbara Corcoran, Daymon John, Lori Greiner, Robert Herjavec, Mark Cuban
What would the experts on the popular ABC show “Shark Tank” advise those who are 50-plus to help make them financially secure? In its February/March AARP The Magazine, which is aimed at those in that age group, editors asked the Sharks. And here is some of their advice:

Kevin O’Leary warns that you must be prepared for financial downs.

Keep 10 percent of your total assets in cash. Three basic investing rules include: Never put more than 5 percent of your money in one stock or more than 20 percent in one sector such as energy. Do put 50 percent of your investments in dividend-paying stocks and 50 percent in interest-bearing bonds. Over the past 40 years, 71 percent of the returns on Standard and Poors came from dividends, not capital appreciation.

Mark Cuban warns that you must “follow the green, not the dream.”

Too many entrepreneurs focus so closely on their dream that they forget the practicalities. The advice carries over to planning for retirement. To better align the dream with the green, determine your savings; assume you’ll earn 4 to 6 percent on investments; commit to living on the returns and not spending the principal; calculate what that leaves you with annually, monthly and weekly; adjust accordingly.

Cuban suggests some healthy paranoia. Learn to spot “Slick Willies.”

If you are listening to one, take a time out to think things through and then follow your good sense. Long-term, consider every financial activity with caution and the expectation that things could change. Health considerations, for instance.

No deal is better than a bad deal.

Three ways to hone your skills to avoid bad deals: Understand the investment. Keep emotion out of it. Getting emotionally attached to such things as a house can blind you to the realities. Speak the truth, not what others want to hear. In making financial decisions, you are not trying to make friends. Separate the two.

Learn from the past.

Take risks, but do it based on your knowledge of outcomes in similar circumstances over a period of time. Invest in what you know. What companies and products do you love and trust? Build your portfolio around them. Do your homework using the many resources of the Internet. Focus first on recouping your capital, then on how much profit you can make.

Negotiate everything.

Don’t simply accept the fact that utility bills are going up, for instance. Call the provider and see if there is anything you can do to lower your bills. If your financial adviser wants 1.5 percent, offer 1 percent. Negotiate with medical providers, etc. If you don’t get a reduction, you haven’t lost anything by trying.

Listen and keep learning.

Ask the question: “What did I learn from this experience?” Age doesn’t matter. There is always opportunity for learning from what life hands you. More knowledge and wisdom mean more opportunity, according to Shark Robert Herjavec. “It’s just a matter of opening doors and finding it.”

Filed Under: Building Wealth, Investing, Personal Finance Tagged With: Investing, money management, Personal Finance, Saving Money

Becoming Tax Efficient with Fund Investments

January 18, 2013 By Richard Cox

For our Coolchecks.net customers, Richard Cox brings us advice about keeping more of our money.

One of the most often-discussed aspects of mutual funds is the fact that they tend to produce poor performances relative to the S&P 500 when things are judged on a pre-tax basis.  And, in many cases, these comparisons become even less favorable when looking at mutual funds on an after-tax basis.  Money managers tend to under-perform relative to Index funds because Index funds will hold investments for the long term.  This becomes important when investors are looking to minimize the expenses that are created when stock investments are bought and then sold on a short-term basis.

When we look at the capital gains distributions in Index funds and compare these to those generated by money managers, significant lessons can be learned.  These lessons essentially tell us that low turnover rates (a small number of trade transactions) and minimal cash balances (in funds that remain almost fully invested) can help investors to capture enhanced returns relative to other investment options.

Advantages of Index Funds

To be sure, index fund managers have an advantage that is not possessed by money managers.  The S&P 500 500 index is constructed by the Standard & Poor’s editorial board, so all these fund managers need to do is look at the stock weightings in the S&P 500 and distribute the managed money according to those weightings.  Selling stock holdings is an even easier process, as these index managers only need to sell shares when the makeup of the index is updated.  Typically, the S&P 500 will see 10 to 15 stock changes each year, and these tend to come from bankruptcies, mergers, acquisitions, or heavy corporate distress.  When we compare these changes to the number of “buys and sells” conducted yearly in the average mutual fund, 10 to 15 is a very small number.

If capital distributions that can be found in the Vanguard Index Trust 500 show 15 cents in short-term capital gains over a given year, 40 cents in long-term capital gains, and the Vanguard Index Trust 500 closes that year with a net asset value (NAV) of $90 per share, it becomes easy to see that the relatively low taxes (likely around 55 cents) do little to diminish the returns in either of these funds.  It should also be remembered, however, that an investor would take on additional tax consequences if shares of the fund were sold.

Lowering Your Tax Liabilities by Keeping Your Money Invested

Most new investors, however, are looking to create wealth over larger time horizons and to use the benefits of compounding returns to their highest advantage.  Looking at things on an after-tax basis, investors can create more value in their investments when keeping money invested (i.e. not cashing-in your shares).  So, while paying high fees can diminish your returns, handing over money in taxes (for fund shares that didn’t need to be sold) can have the same negative effect.

As another example, assume that Vanguard’s Windsor fund creates short-term gain distributions of 85 cents and a long-term distribution equal to $2.  If the fund possesses a NAV equal to $17 at the end of the year, Windsor will generate 6.5 times the tax burden (per share) while showing a NAV that is 81% lower.  If Windsor creates returns of 20% for the year (and the S&P 500 generates returns of 30% for the same period), most of Windsor’s returns will be taxed as capital gains distributions.  This can reduce those returns by as much as 15% to 35%.  (Here the exact reduction will depend on the tax bracket of the investor.)

The troubling reality is that a majority of mutual fund providers choose not to highlight after-tax returns.  They say that this is because individual tax situations are different, but if after-tax returns were highlighted, the performance differences between your typical mutual fund and in the S&P 500 would become much larger and more difficult to ignore.  Another benefit gained when using a predetermined investment plan (which includes less frequent share sales) is that this reduces the amount of money you have stored in low yield cash holdings.  It is possible for index funds to have more than 98% of its cash invested in market assets, but mutual funds will typically have much larger amounts of cash on hand (i.e. not actively invested).  So if your money is in a mutual fund, and only 90% or your cash is invested, it becomes more difficult to beat the returns posted by the index fund because of the smaller amounts of money actively invested.

All of these factors create some combined negatives, because money managers must outperform the index so that they can make up for increased expenses and because they are never fully invested with all available cash resources.  So, if money managers do beat the market (or simply break even) on a pre-tax basis, any value gains made for individual investors might be depleted with capital gains distributions which make a large percentage of these gains taxable.

Lessons for Individual Investors

So, when individual investors want to make their own financial decisions, the lessons here should be very clear: The best approach for generating larger, long-term returns is through maximizing money that is actively invested in the market and in adhering to the rules of tax efficiency. When the effects of taxation are calculated, outperformance margins that many short-term investors believe they have captured are significantly diminished.

Typically, the argument of these short term investors is that you will have to sell your shares at some point. But the reality shows us that when money compounds over longer time frames (as gains are reinvested, rather than cashed out), the lower tax rates for long-term shareholders create after-tax benefits that can be substantial. This does not even factor-in the possibility of owning stocks with dividend yields, which allow you to capture a rising income – gained through simple stock ownership. In some cases, it will be possible to live on your dividend income and leave your invested equity untouched (and without additional tax liabilities).

These are the reasons why S&P 500 Index investments are tough competition when compared to managed money accounts. When we understand why the S&P 500 index fund is often a preferable investment vehicle, it is possible to understand how to invest and keep expenses low. When investors minimize tax burdens and maximize the amount of money that is actively invested in the market, returns for the typical S&P 500 index fund far surpass those generated by professionally managed money. As an investor, your goal is to replicate this approach as closely as possible, as this will generate strong returns on an after-tax basis that are above and beyond what is typically seen in the market averages.

Filed Under: Investing, Mutual Funds Tagged With: mutual funds

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